"Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore."
—Andre Gide
We all share one resource equally—TIME. Whether you’re a CEO or a garbage picker, there are 24 hours in a day and 168 hours in a week. The difference lies in how we choose to invest this finite resource.
Our brains are built to predict the future, but the models we create are shaped by our mindset—a choice that influences our motivation and, ultimately, our success. Psychologist Carol Dweck categorizes mindset into two powerful types: the growth mindset, where challenges are opportunities for improvement, and the fixed mindset, where abilities are seen as unchangeable and setbacks insurmountable. [i] The mindset choice determines the level of motivation we have for investing our TIME in that uncertain future.
Not surprisingly, the growth mindset provides a higher degree of motivation to capture future opportunities, as compared to the fixed mindset. In this article, we reveal how adopting a growth mindset transforms time from a mere resource into a powerful investment tool. First, we’ll examine the fixed mindset through the lens of determinism, then pivot to a framework that empowers you to rise above it. Using the story of the garbage picker—our unexpected hero—we’ll uncover how anyone can leverage their mindset to create opportunities, maximize their value, and achieve a flourishing life.
If the garbage picker can do it - so can you!
Table of contents
Introduction
How mindset transforms uncertainty into opportunity
The Opportunity Engine: How specialization and preparation transform lives
The framework for capturing the garbage picker's MASSIVE opportunity
How the garbage picker makes high-value choices
Conclusion and Notes
About the author: Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.
Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.
2. How mindset transforms uncertainty into opportunity
Neuroscientist and endocrinologist Robert Sapolsky provides a thought-provoking argument for why our world often leans toward deterministic outcomes. He contends that individuals are profoundly shaped by their genetic predispositions and environmental conditions, which seem to lock them into predefined paths. This framework of determinism challenges foundational societal principles such as free will, accountability, and the pursuit of happiness. If our actions are hardwired by the forces of nature and nurture, how can society fairly hold individuals accountable for their choices? [iii] More importantly, how can one truly navigate a path to fulfillment when the future feels predestined?
Sapolsky illustrates determinism through a vivid example: the garbage picker versus the college graduate. On the same university campus during a graduation ceremony, proud families cheer for graduates breaking generational barriers while, in the background, the grounds crew quietly cleans up. Sapolsky argues that the garbage picker’s life outcomes, shaped by genetic traits (nature) and environmental influences (nurture), seem predetermined—leaving little room for deviation.
Sapolsky’s narrative illustrates determinism by highlighting how life trajectories are shaped by the interplay of genetics and environmental factors. His story of the graduate and the garbage picker suggests that, had they swapped genes and childhood environments, their roles at the graduation ceremony would also reverse. While this deterministic view is thought-provoking, it leaves the future unexamined. In contrast, this article argues that even for the garbage picker, the future is not fixed. By adopting a growth mindset and intentionally investing time, individuals can create opportunities to transcend their starting circumstances and achieve a flourishing life.
While Sapolsky’s deterministic framework looks backward, focusing on the factors that led to the graduate’s and garbage picker’s current roles, the growth mindset shifts attention forward. It highlights the potential for individuals, regardless of their starting point, to leverage deliberate effort and learning to alter their trajectories. This forward-looking perspective transforms the garbage picker’s narrative from one of resignation to one of empowerment, suggesting that time and intention can be used to rewrite the future.
Uncertainty is the essential condition where these mindsets diverge, offering a clear distinction between the fixed and growth mindsets. The past, viewed through the lens of our choices, often feels deterministic—a reflection of the direction we took, shaped by the combined forces of nature and nurture. Once fixed, the past stands as a record of what we decided, but it does not define what lies ahead. The future, by contrast, is probabilistic—an open field of possibilities where our decisions today can change our trajectory and shape a new direction.
As financial historian Peter Bernstein aptly stated, “The future is the playing field.” How we respond to this uncertainty—whether with resignation to past influences or with resolve to leverage opportunities—determines the path forward. While our decisions may be influenced by nature and nurture, they do not have to be bound by them. It is through intentional choices that we can rewrite our direction and make uncertainty our ally.
This article moves beyond Sapolsky’s static comparison of the garbage picker and the graduate, illustrating how anyone—regardless of their starting point—can rise above deterministic barriers. By adopting a growth mindset, individuals can navigate uncertainty, embrace opportunity, and create a flourishing life. Using a blend of economics, Stoic philosophy, and actionable strategies, we’ll explore how to break free from default patterns and chart a brighter future.
3. The Opportunity Engine: How specialization and preparation transform lives
Our world thrives on diversity—diversity of people, skills, and life circumstances. Across 8 billion people globally and 350 million in the United States, most individuals fall within a spectrum of ability and potential shaped by their nature (genetic traits) and nurture (environmental factors). For this article, we assume our garbage picker hero represents the 99% of people with sufficient capacity to engage meaningfully with life’s opportunities. Their journey illustrates how leveraging diversity and making deliberate investments in time and effort can create a path to success.
Comparative Advantage and Specialization
The garbage picker’s opportunity begins with the principle of comparative advantage, a foundational economic concept introduced by David Ricardo in the early 19th century. [iv] Comparative advantage explains how individuals can create economic value, even without being the best at any single task. It demonstrates that specializing in activities where one is relatively more efficient enables collaboration and wealth creation.
Consider two individuals on the same university campus: Dr. Sapolsky, a neuroscientist and professor, and the garbage picker, who cleans up after graduation ceremonies. Sapolsky excels at both neuroscience and garbage picking, but his time is better spent conducting research because the market values his expertise in neuroscience more highly. If Sapolsky dedicated time to garbage picking, it would result in an opportunity cost, detracting from his ability to advance his specialized field.
By contrast, the garbage picker fills a necessary role that complements Sapolsky’s specialization. Their work allows Sapolsky to focus on neuroscience while earning a modest wage. Through this trade-off, both contribute to the system’s efficiency. The garbage picker may lack formal education or technical skills, but they possess the time and willingness to perform tasks that enable the system to function. This interplay highlights how comparative advantage and specialization enable individuals to leverage their unique attributes and create shared value.
Now, let’s add a nuance. What if Sapolsky enjoys garbage picking as a relaxing diversion? That is different. We all need to relax and recharge. This time spent on personal enjoyment is separate from the time we use for our vocations. I, the author, love being outside and gardening. Does this mean I am at odds with landscapers? No. It just means I enjoy piddling outside at something that helps me recharge. While I use my "household production" for some of my landscaping—like piddling in my yard—most of my landscaping needs are "exported" to my lawn guy.
My lawn guy is a specialist who can manage many yards more efficiently and less expensively than if each homeowner did it themselves. While all homeowners could do it themselves, it would take time away from other specializations enabling them to earn money to trade for lawn mowing. This trade-off underscores the beauty of comparative advantage and specialization: specialization is the best investment of our time, our time is transformed into currency, this currency facilitates trade, and trade creates wealth. It is that simple. [v]
Of course, there is not always a clean line between vocations and diversions. The point is that the price mechanism signals how society values economic activities. Since our time is fixed, anything we do outside one economic activity creates an opportunity cost for another. For example, if I spend an hour piddling in my yard, this activity revitalizes me, making me more efficient in my specialized profession. This is in contrast to spending an additional hour on my professional work, which may not recharge me in the same way. By respecting the balance between specialization and personal rejuvenation, we can maximize both productivity and well-being.
The Role of Preparation and Opportunity in Success
The garbage picker’s journey illustrates how Causal Emergence [vi-c], a theory developed by neuroscientist Eric Hoel, operates: lower-scale activities, such as consistent attendance at work or learning basic skills, build a foundation for higher-scale outcomes, such as career advancement or financial stability. Preparation serves as the denominator in the probability of success, while opportunity acts as the numerator. [vi-d] Together, they determine the likelihood of a successful outcome:
Preparation involves building habits, developing skills, and showing up consistently. While each action may seem small, they collectively increase the denominator, reducing the risk of failure.
Opportunity, by contrast, represents a specific event that can propel success, such as a new job offer, mentorship, or access to education. While opportunities are often unpredictable and emerge retrospectively, a larger denominator ensures readiness when they arise.
As Seneca, the Stoic philosopher, famously said:
“Luck is where preparation and opportunity meet.”
In practice, the garbage picker’s consistent effort to show up and work diligently increases the likelihood of intersecting with meaningful opportunities. For example, their reliability may lead to being noticed by a supervisor, who offers them a role with greater responsibility or access to training programs. This intersection of preparation and opportunity creates the conditions for upward mobility.
The Stoic Perspective: Focusing on What We Can Control
Stoic philosophy provides a powerful framework for navigating uncertainty and overcoming deterministic barriers. [vi-a] At its core, Stoicism emphasizes the dichotomy of control, which divides the factors influencing our lives into three categories:
High influence: Our actions, choices, and judgments—areas fully within our control.
Partial influence: Outcomes related to health, wealth, and relationships, influenced by both our efforts and external factors.
No influence: External circumstances, such as genetics, environment, and chance—factors entirely outside our control.
In the context of the garbage picker, focusing on what they can control—showing up to work, building reliable habits, and improving skills—fosters a sense of agency. This contrasts with a fixed mindset, which attributes outcomes solely to external forces, leaving individuals feeling powerless to effect change.
Neuroscience supports this perspective. [vi-b] Dr. Anil Seth, a cognitive and computational neuroscience professor, aligns with Stoic principles when he describes free will as:
“A freedom to act according to our beliefs, values, and goals, and to make choices according to who we are.”
The garbage picker exemplifies this approach. By consistently investing effort in their current role, they create opportunities to reshape their trajectory, regardless of the deterministic constraints imposed by nature and nurture. These small, deliberate actions build a foundation for future growth and success.
Connecting Preparation, Opportunity, and Causal Emergence
Preparation and opportunity are interdependent, but their impacts differ. Preparation often involves smaller, less obvious actions—showing up, learning a skill, or building confidence—that may feel insignificant in the moment. These actions, however, are essential for creating the conditions where opportunities can emerge.
Causal Emergence explains why lower-scale activities are less causally significant in isolation but become vital as they accumulate. Over time, these activities give rise to higher-scale opportunities, such as a promotion, a business venture, or acceptance into college. While preparation is foundational, opportunities often appear as pivotal moments requiring immediate action. Success depends on having the readiness to capitalize on them.
Mathematically, increasing the denominator (preparation) over time enhances the probability that a numerator (opportunity—both quality and number) will lead to success. Consistent preparatory investments compound over time, creating a convex relationship where early efforts may show limited results but eventually lead to disproportionately larger gains in opportunities. For the garbage picker, preparation might include attending work regularly, practicing effective communication, or learning new skills through free resources like online courses. These actions, sustained over time, not only build competence but also signal reliability and persistence to others, exponentially increasing the likelihood of encountering transformative opportunities. [vii-a]
Practical Example: The Garbage Picker’s Success Path
On the surface, the garbage picker’s work may seem mundane. Yet, their deliberate effort to control what they can—such as punctuality, attitude, and skill development—creates a foundation for growth. Imagine they take on additional responsibilities, such as coordinating with event staff or managing inventory. These small steps demonstrate capability, leading to recognition by their employer.
Opportunities arise from these actions: a supervisor offers them a pathway to management, or they gain access to a vocational training program. Over time, these opportunities compound, enabling the garbage picker to transition into higher-paying roles or entrepreneurial ventures. Their success is not accidental; it emerges from the cumulative impact of preparation and seizing opportunities when they appear.
Stoicism, Science, Comparative Advantage, and the Growth Mindset in Action
The garbage picker’s story exemplifies how Stoic philosophy, Causal Emergence, comparative advantage, and a growth mindset work together to drive success. Comparative advantage highlights that success isn’t about being the best at everything but about specializing where one can create value. By focusing on what they can control—such as showing up, building skills, and making deliberate investments of time—the garbage picker maximizes opportunities while enabling others, like Dr. Sapolsky, to focus on their own specializations.
Stoicism underscores the importance of controlling one’s actions and judgments, reinforcing resilience in the face of challenges. Meanwhile, Causal Emergence explains how small, consistent efforts at the microscale (e.g., punctuality and skill-building) can create opportunities for macroscale success (e.g., promotions or career growth). Together, these principles illustrate how preparation meets opportunity to deliver results.
This blend of philosophy, science, and economics shows how anyone, regardless of starting point, can overcome limitations and create a flourishing life. By embracing their unique strengths and circumstances, the garbage picker’s journey demonstrates that success is not luck but the outcome of intentional and strategic effort.
Returning to the graduation day scene, Sapolsky’s narrative underscores the gap between the graduate and the garbage picker, emphasizing the weight of determinism. Yet, while the garbage picker’s role may seem predetermined, their actions today hold transformative potential. By consistently showing up, taking deliberate steps to learn new skills, and aligning their habits with long-term goals, the garbage picker can challenge the constraints of their starting point. This highlights the fundamental difference between Sapolsky’s perspective and this article: the former is rooted in the past, while the latter focuses on how intentional actions can shape the future.
Let us assume the garbage picker has enough essential health care and money to provide simple shelter and food ... a basic subsistence. Nothing fancy for sure, but a baseline. The garbage picker may have some past demons or bad habits. What if they gamble or drink a little too much? More on bad habits are discussed in the next section. The remainder of this article focuses on that which we can control. That is, how we invest our TIME to get the most out of our life.
4. The framework for capturing the garbage picker's MASSIVE opportunity
Let’s shift focus to the garbage picker’s greatest resource: TIME. Like any finite resource, how it’s allocated determines its potential for growth. To understand the investment opportunity, consider TIME as an economist would: divided into two chunks, akin to savings and consumption. Savings reflects time invested for future returns, while consumption represents time spent in the present. The distinction lies in when we choose to "consume" the resource. With approximately 170 hours per week, the challenge is how best to balance these allocations.
The first chunk accounts for essential consumption—time required for sleep, sustenance, and work. After these necessities, about 80 hours remain for saving and investing in the future.
The second chunk represents investments in future well-being—time devoted to thriving. This includes sleep and food beyond survival needs, exercise, and life management. These components vary by individual, but their goal is the same: enhancing long-term capacity and resilience. [vii-b]
Here, we separate survival-based food and sleep from the thriving-focused equivalents. This distinction, informed by longevity research from Peter Attia and Dan Buettner, underscores that some activities serve not just to sustain life but to enhance it. [viii]
Treating TIME as an investable currency requires both discipline and intention. So, what does a TIME investment look like? In simple terms, it’s how we direct our attention. [ix] The activities and priorities we focus on determine the value we create—or fail to create. Consider the example of social media: platforms are designed to monetize your attention, often distracting from higher-value opportunities. A quick check of your smartphone can reveal just how much TIME might be slipping away. While we’ll dive deeper into these distractions and other bad habits later, the key takeaway here is clear:
Success begins with respecting TIME as your most precious resource and deploying it intentionally.
After accounting for fixed investments in essentials, we’re left with approximately 60 hours per week for forward, long-term investments. That’s an incredible opportunity to shape your future.
Back of the envelope estimate of TIME allocation. Individual allocations may vary. It is the framework that matters.
Critics of this approach, like Dr. Sapolsky and proponents of determinism, might argue, “Sure, but nature and nurture limit our ability to fully realize that investment.” To this, I’d respond: “The TIME investment works within the context of a growth mindset—focusing on what you can control.”
Let’s be honest:
Do factors like nature and nurture make investing TIME harder for some? Absolutely.
Do systemic inequities create additional barriers for certain social classes? No question—and that’s deeply unfair.
But here’s the crux: The future is the playing field. Regardless of our starting point, the choices we make today shape our opportunities for tomorrow.
"Today is only one day in all the days that will ever be. But what will happen in all the other days that ever come can depend on what you do today."
- Ernest Hemmingway
5. How the garbage picker makes high-value choices
First, addressing past challenges is essential for creating a foundation for success. Earlier, we discussed bad habits like gambling, drinking, or excessive use of social media, which manifest differently for each individual. These behaviors often reflect deeper influences tied to genetic predispositions and formative environmental factors, aligning with Sapolsky’s argument about determinism. [x] Within the Causal Emergence framework, bad habits function as negatives in the denominator, diminishing the probability of opportunity emergence and successful outcomes. Because our TIME resource is finite, these ingrained behaviors crowd out the time and energy needed to build good habits, limiting the potential for growth and positive change.
Tackling bad habits is crucial because they often feel natural, rooted as they are in neurobiology and behavioral psychology. [xi-a] Sapolsky’s view of determinism highlights how these ingrained patterns can reinforce a sense of inevitability, leaving individuals trapped in the constraints of their nature and nurture. Without intervention, bad habits perpetuate a fixed mindset, further entrenching deterministic pathways and making it more challenging to embrace the growth mindset needed to transcend them.
Some challenges extend beyond typical bad habits and into more persistent conditions, such as alcoholism. For many recovering alcoholics, acknowledging the permanence of their condition leads to a commitment to total abstinence. In this discussion, we categorize both changeable habits and controllable lifelong challenges under the umbrella of "bad habits." In essence, overcoming these habits equates to breaking free from determinism and embracing the possibility of growth.
While genetics may predispose us to certain behaviors or conditions, epigenetics reminds us that we have some influence over how these predispositions manifest. [xi-b] By minimizing bad habits and fostering personalized good habits, we can counteract the limitations of our genetic and environmental inheritance.
Identifying and addressing bad habits is undeniably challenging but necessary. The ultimate goal is to avoid forming bad habits in the first place. However, when they do arise, adopting a “progress, not perfection” mindset is key. As Voltaire wisely observed, “Perfect is the enemy of good.” Confront your demons, seek support, and focus on incremental improvement.
Let’s estimate that resolving past challenges might require an investment of 10 hours per week. That still leaves about 50 hours for building positive momentum. Consider tackling these bad habits first to clear the way for meaningful forward investments in your time and future.
How do you make the most of your MASSIVE 60-hour-per-week investment capacity? Everyone’s circumstances and life stages differ, but let’s assume you are the garbage picker hero of this story—a young adult seeking to define your career direction.
If garbage picking feels like the right path for you, start by speaking with the owner or manager. Seriously consider the future possibilities in this line of work. What if the university’s grounds crew contractor has access to innovative technology, a unique competitive edge, or valuable market relationships? You could be stepping into an entrepreneurial opportunity at the ground level! Is there a pathway to management or even equity in the company? Use your 60-hour TIME war chest to explore how you could strategically grow within the garbage-picking industry.
If garbage picking doesn’t align with your aspirations, shift your focus toward educational investments. Start small—there are plenty of free or low-cost online resources, such as Khan Academy, to help you begin. [xii] If you didn’t finish high school, prioritize earning your GED. If you did graduate but lack financial resources, enroll in a local community college to earn an associate’s degree. Community colleges offer an affordable way to build momentum, potentially paving the way to a bachelor’s degree. Also, check whether your employer or contracting company offers education assistance to employees—this could significantly lower your costs.
What field should you study? Consider the evolving demands of our dynamic economy. Growing industries often reflect where employers need skilled workers. To align your education with these opportunities, consult the government’s Occupation Outlook Handbook and choose a major that supports a high-value, in-demand career.
Please see the latest list on the BLS website.
How do you make yourself a top choice for recruitment? [xiii] Start with strong academic performance. A good GPA signals to potential employers the "3 Cs":
The first C is “intellectual Competence” → which is the willingness and ability to learn.
The next C is Conscientiousness” → which is a resilient and hard worker.
Finally, the last C is Collaborativeness” → which is a team player.
Recruiters rely on GPA as a quick, reliable indicator of your readiness to succeed in their organization. This is worth considering when choosing a college—select one where you’re confident you can achieve a strong GPA.
Building intellectual capacity is what economists refer to as "increasing human capital." It’s important to distinguish between the process of building human capital and the outcomes associated with it. Many people increase their human capital without attending college, which highlights that correlation is not causation.
As a former managing consultant in a firm that hired thousands of college graduates each year, I’ve seen firsthand how employers view the college system. Hiring managers, overwhelmed by their daily responsibilities, often rely on GPA as a key signal of an applicant's ability to sustain effort over time and achieve goals. Employers are primarily looking for hard-working, trainable team players. The fact that you earned an education is a secondary benefit—the GPA itself signals your potential. Once you’re hired, the rest can be taught.
In addition to GPA, your choice of major often serves as a tiebreaker between otherwise equally qualified candidates. This is why a strong GPA opens doors, but the right major helps you stand out once you are through them.
Earlier, we discussed two paths: staying with your current occupation or pursuing a new direction. Whether garbage picking is a metaphor for your current situation or a literal starting point, the decision to continue or change paths comes down to how you invest your TIME. Either way, higher education may play a role.
However, higher education doesn’t always mean pursuing a formal college degree. Not all industries prioritize degrees as credentials, and human capital can be developed through experience and low-cost certifications. Think of higher education in broader terms—as a commitment to lifelong learning. This habit is critical for cultivating a growth mindset. No matter your career stage, allocate a portion of your 60-hour investment capacity to continuous learning.
Finally, what if your current circumstances don’t allow you to deploy your TIME investment effectively? Or, what if your work consumes so much time that little remains for forward investment? Then it’s time to consider a change. Economic and social mobility are vital—don’t let yourself feel trapped. Seek communities or environments that offer a better foundation for investing your TIME effectively.
"The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear."
—Nelson Mandela
6. Conclusion
While determinism offers persuasive insights into the constraints imposed by nature and nurture, it does not have to dictate our destinies. Throughout this article, we’ve explored how the garbage picker—symbolizing anyone at a crossroads—can transcend the default path by adopting a growth mindset, investing their time intentionally, and seizing opportunities as they emerge. As Peter Bernstein aptly reminds us, “The future is the playing field,” and it is our engagement with that field that shapes whether we flourish or falter.
By embracing a growth mindset, individuals can transform challenges into opportunities for learning and development. Shifting focus from the limitations of our past to the possibilities of our future enables us to take control of our stories. Drawing from economics, Stoic philosophy, and the science of behavior, we’ve outlined practical tools to navigate uncertainty, highlighting the power of preparation, adaptability, and resilience.
The garbage picker’s journey is more than just a metaphor; it is a tangible blueprint for leveraging time, attention, and habits to create a fulfilling and impactful life. From confronting the constraints of nature and nurture to embracing opportunities for education, career advancement, and lifelong learning, the strategies presented here demonstrate that flourishing is not reserved for the privileged—it is accessible to anyone willing to act with intention.
Ultimately, the garbage picker’s story serves as a powerful reminder: success is not the result of preordained destiny, but of deliberate choices, strategic preparation, and the courage to step forward. The future remains an open playing field—what deliberate action will you take today to claim your place in the game?
Notes
[i] Dweck, Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, 2006
[ii] Goddard, Locus of control, Core Psychiatry, 3rd Ed, 2012
[iii] The impact of nature and nurture is explored in the article:
Hulett, The Gene Trade: Making the Market for Gene-altering Interventions and Medical Selection, The Curiosity Vine, 2022
[iv] Ricardo, The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, 1817
[v] Russ Roberts provides a stark but appropriate way of thinking about the power of specialization:
"Self-sufficiency is the road to poverty"
Roberts, The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protectionism, 2000
[vi-a] Epictetus, Enchiridion, 125 CE
The Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701-1761) is credited with developing the mathematics to help make judgments based on an uncertain, or probabilistic, future. The probability-based math is called Bayesian Inference and is based on the conditional probability construct. For a deeper dive into how to make choices and impact our belief-informed judgments, please see:
Hulett, Challenging Our Beliefs - how to be Bayesian in our day-to-day life, The Curiosity Vine, 2023
[vi-b] Seth, Being You: A New Science of Consciousness, 2020
[vi-d] A similar application of Causal Emergence occurs by an example from C.E.K. Mees:
‘The approach of a scientist to the phenomena which he observes may be realized perhaps by means of an analogy. Suppose you enter a room and see a man playing a violin. You say at once that this is a musical instrument and is producing sound. But suppose that the observer were absolutely deaf from birth, had no idea of hearing, and had never been told anything of sound or musical instruments, his whole knowledge of the world having been acquired through senses other than hearing. This deaf observer entering the room where a violinist was playing would be entirely unable to account for the phenomenon. He would see the movements of the player, the operation of the bow on the strings, the peculiarly shaped instrument, but the whole thing would appear to him irrational. But if he were a scientist interested in phenomena and their classification, he would presently find that the movements of the bow on the violin produced vibrations, and these vibrations could be detected by means of physical instruments and their wave form could be observed. After some time, it might occur to him that the vibrations of the strings and violin must be communicated to the air and could be observed as changes of pressure. Then he could record the changes of pressure produced in the air in the playing of a piece of music, and by analysing the record could observe that the same groups of pressure changes were repeated periodically. Eventually he would attain to a knowledge of the whole phenomenon of music—the form of musical composition and the nature of different musical forms—but none of this would give him any approach to the absolute truth in that he would still be unaware of the existence of sound as a sense and of the part that music could play in the mental life of those who could hear.’
Mees, The Path of Science, 1946 (p. 59)
[vii-a] Mathematical Model of the preparation and opportunity relationship over time.
The relationship between opportunity as the numerator and preparation as the denominator is modeled. Preparation (Prep) is functionally related to opportunity O(Prep). Small increases in preparation lead to a disproportionately larger increase in opportunities and thus increase the overall probability (outcome). Time (t) is included to capture the duration of preparation and its cumulative effect on opportunities. A convex relationship between time and preparation as an investment is assumed, much the way regular savings will compound for higher returns.
We introduce a time variable (t) to capture the duration of preparation and its cumulative effect on opportunities:
Time-Dependent Preparation (Prep(t)):
Preparation often grows with consistent time investment, which can be modeled exponentially (reflecting compounding effort):
Time-Dependent Opportunities (O(Prep,t):
Opportunities depend on both preparation and a convex time component. This reflects that opportunities disproportionately increase as preparation matures:
Solve the Probability Formula:
Key Features of the Updated Model:
Insights:
Early Effort Matters: While opportunity growth is slow initially, it compounds over time, emphasizing the value of consistent preparation.
Timing is Critical: The convexity of opportunity growth highlights the importance of sustained investments, even when immediate payoffs are not visible.
Higher Returns: The model mirrors the time value of money, where delayed but consistent preparation leads to exponential increases in the probability of success.
A low preparation and high preparation example
The visualizations compare a "low preparation" scenario to a "high preparation" scenario over time. The following key points highlight how making consistent preparatory investments leads to more opportunities and a higher probability of success:
Preparation Over Time:
Low preparation starts at a smaller baseline and grows slower compared to high preparation.
High preparation exhibits exponential growth over time due to the increased initial investment and compounding effects.
Opportunities Over Time:
Opportunities scale non-linearly with preparation. High preparation results in significantly more opportunities, as illustrated by the steeper growth curve.
Early differences in preparation create increasingly larger gaps in opportunity over time.
Probability of Success:
The high preparation scenario achieves a markedly higher probability of success than the low preparation scenario, particularly over extended time horizons.
This is due to the combined impact of higher preparation levels and the convex nature of opportunity growth relative to preparation investments.
This model underscores the importance of sustained and higher initial investments in preparation to maximize long-term opportunities and success.
[vii-b] "Sleep" could easily be dropped into the 2nd fixed investment chunk instead of the 1st consumption chunk. Science teaches that sleep is an investment in future health. The old adage that "I will sleep when I'm dead" has been flipped. Today, science teaches us that a "lack of sleep will cause me to be dead." This is owing to neurodegenerative disease associated with inadequate sleep.
Sleep was placed in the first chunk because we consume it every day. However, sleep should NOT be considered a source of long-term source of investable TIME. Sure, in a pinch, a night or 2 of little sleep is probably ok. However, persistent sleep deprivation should be avoided.
Hulett, How medical system incentives foster an impaired, health-diminished doctoring environment, The Curiosity Vine, 2023
[viii] Buettner, The Blue Zones: Lessons for Living Longer From the People Who've Lived the Longest, 2008
Attia, Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity, 2023
[ix] "... the right hemisphere has a kind of sustained, broad, vigilant attention instead of this narrow, focused, piecemeal attention (found in the left hemisphere). And it sustains a sense of being, a continuous being, in the world. So, these are very different kinds of attention." - Iain McGilchrist
Dr. McGilchrist discusses the different kinds of attention emanating from different brain hemispheres. It is our left hemispheric originated "narrow, focused, piecemeal attention" on point for our evolutionary-based linear focus for survival. It is the understanding of non-linearity needing a "sustained, broad, vigilant attention" associated with our right hemispheric originated attention.
McGilchrist, The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World, 2009
[x] There is a correlation between parenting style and one's growth mindset predisposition and related opportunity achievement. The authoritative or demanding and responsive parenting style is known as the most likely to start a young adult on a growth mindset trajectory. The authoritarian or demanding but unresponsive parenting style is less likely to enable a growth mindset. For this article, we consider parenting styles as "sins of the past" habits that the child may need to update as a young adult.
Merlin, Okerson, Hess, How Parenting Style Influences Children: A Review of Controlling, Guiding, and Permitting Parenting Styles on Children’s Behavior, Risk-taking, Mental Health, and Academic Achievement, The William and Mary Educational Review, Vol 2, Issue 1, Article 14, 2013
One of my favorite examples of overcoming parenting style is Pat Summitt. Coach Summitt was an Olympic basketball player and women's college basketball coach trailblazer. Based on her memoir, she admittedly grew up in a traditional, southern United States authoritarian parented environment. She transitioned from the fixed mindset of her upbringing to becoming one of the most successful college coaches in history.
Summitt's example also provides a sad, cautionary tale. Related to the TIME investment framework, Summitt appeared to trade sleep from Chunk 1 as a forward investment. In other words, she deprived herself of sleep to invest in her basketball career. Unfortunately for the world, her life was cut short by early-onset neurodegenerative disease. The causes of neurodegenerative disease are complex. However, neuroscience teaches there is a strong correlation between sleep deprivation and neurodegenerative disease. Summitt was famous for sleep deprivation, especially in-season.
Summitt, Jenkins, Sum It Up, 2013
[xi-a] Bad habits, such as those related to drinking, smoking, and social media have their source in the dopamenic processes of our neurobiology.
Hulett, How our neurobiology impacts our life's pursuits: Are you from 'Dope-land' or 'Acetyl-ville?', The Curiosity Vine, 2023
[xi-b] "Alcoholism is a complex psychiatric disorder that has a multifactorial etiology. Epigenetic mechanisms are uniquely capable of accounting for the multifactorial nature of the disease in that they are highly stable and are affected by environmental factors, including alcohol itself. Chromatin remodeling causes changes in gene expression in specific brain regions contributing to the endophenotypes of alcoholism such as tolerance and dependence. The epigenetic mechanisms that regulate changes in gene expression observed in addictive behaviors respond not only to alcohol exposure but also to comorbid psychopathology such as the presence of anxiety and stress. This review summarizes recent developments in epigenetic research that may play a role in alcoholism. We propose that pharmacologically manipulating epigenetic targets, as demonstrated in various preclinical models, hold great therapeutic potential in the treatment and prevention of alcoholism."
Krishnan, Sakharkar, Teppen, Berkel, Pandey, Chapter Three - The Epigenetic Landscape of Alcoholism, Editor(s): Subhash C. Pandey, International Review of Neurobiology, Academic Press, Volume 115, 2014, Pages 75-116,
[xii] A potential future for the higher education system is explored and the use of low-cost educational resources.
Hulett, Higher Education Reimagined, The Curiosity Vine, 2020
[xiii] Hulett, Diamonds In The Rough – A perspective on making high impact college hires, The Curiosity Vine, 2021
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