A Moment of Clarity Amid Complexity
The inspiration behind Personal Finance Reimagined (PFR) stemmed from a critical challenge: Why do people struggle to make the best financial decisions, even when they want to? Despite good intentions, high-stakes financial choices—like whether to attend college—are clouded by complexity, information overload, and misleading narratives.
Higher education is one of the most significant financial commitments an individual can make, yet assessing its return on investment (ROI) is difficult. The government and many institutions claim, “College pays,” but the reality is more nuanced. This is where PFR began—by creating a consistent, repeatable decision-making process to cut through the noise and deliver financial clarity.
This article walks through PFR's origin story, starting with college decisions as a launching pad for improving all personal finance decisions.
About the Author: Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.
Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.
The Wall Street Journal Article That Changed Everything
At the onset of the pandemic, The Wall Street Journal published Calculating the Risk of College, a piece that made sweeping claims about the financial benefits of a degree. Something about the conclusion didn’t sit right. Having worked in banking, data science, and risk management, I instinctively questioned the methodology. The analysis showed that college graduates earned more on average, but it ignored the risks. It was like assessing an investment without factoring in potential losses—an oversight that could lead millions into financial hardship.
At the same time, my team and I were refining PFR’s mission. The modern world had transitioned from data scarcity to data abundance, requiring a new approach to financial decision-making. The challenge was no longer accessing information but curating it—subtracting noise and applying a consistent decision framework. With no clear way for students to evaluate college ROI, we saw an opportunity to redefine personal finance education.
Challenging the “College Pays” Narrative
The conventional wisdom—that a college degree is a good investment—is misleading. Government data presents only one side of the story, tracking those who succeed while ignoring those who struggle. The missing piece? Risk.
Applying static pool analysis, a risk management technique used in banking, I restructured the data. The results were staggering: while some graduates thrived, only 9% of students achieved the “ideal” outcome showcased in government publications—graduating with no debt and securing a job that required their degree. Meanwhile, 90% faced “life impairments,” such as debt, default, underemployment, or dropping out.
The True Risk of College: “Life Impairments”
Breaking down the data revealed that the actual outcomes of college starters were far worse than advertised:
Life Impairments | % of Students | Outcome | ROI Potential |
0 | 9% | Graduate, no debt, job requiring a degree | High |
1 | 22% | Graduate, job requiring a degree, but with student debt | Marginal but possible |
1-2 | 51% | Did not graduate or are underemployed | Unlikely |
2-3 | 8% | Graduated but defaulted on student loans | Very unlikely |
3+ | 10% | Did not graduate and defaulted | Bankruptcy won’t even help |
Static pool analysis results based on data from The Wall Street Journal, National Center for Education Statistics, The Institute for College Access & Success, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Strada Institute for the Future of Work, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For those who borrowed heavily and failed to graduate, the outlook was particularly grim. Student loan debt, unlike virtually all other loans, cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. Worse, a $400/month student loan payment translates to roughly $3.5 million in lost retirement savings due to lost opportunities for compound interest.
Why the “Education Pays” Data Is Misleading
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) bases its Education Pays report on average salaries for degree holders, but this analysis suffers from two major flaws:
Survivorship Bias – It only includes graduates, ignoring the many who drop out and accumulate debt with no degree to show for it.
Lack of Risk Accounting – It assumes every student who enters college will succeed, failing to acknowledge the long-term financial damage for those who don’t.
In finance, understanding both risk and return is essential. Yet, the system continues to push students into college without providing tools to measure the full impact.
The Policy Failure: Public Choice Theory and Higher Ed’s Spending Addiction
Why has the student loan system spiraled out of control? The answer lies in incentives. Colleges compete on prestige, not value. Without clear price signals, they have no reason to control costs—so they don’t. Instead, they spend every available dollar on luxury amenities, administrative bloat, and marketing to attract more students.
The U.S. government fuels this spending spree through Direct Lending, a policy shift that removed private lenders from the equation. When the private market signaled that student lending costs were too high, the government responded by taking over the program rather than correcting the problem.
Predictably, tuition skyrocketed. With unlimited government-backed loans, colleges spent freely to bolster prestige signaling rather than student ROI. The BLS and DoE fuel availability bias, causing students to underestimate the significance of future debt burdens. The DoE’s “Easy Money” approach, with delayed repayment, shields borrowers from reality, luring them into financial commitments they barely understand—until it’s too late.
The In-the-Door vs. Regrettable-Exit-Door Problem
Public choice theory explains why the system remains broken. There are two key groups:
The “In-the-Door” Population – High school seniors and parents, excited about college, plus education industry cheerleaders pushing for more financial aid and access. They are loud, organized, and politically influential.
The “Regrettable-Exit-Door” Population – Those burdened by debt and underemployment. They are fragmented, silent, and politically invisible.
Because policymakers respond to the loudest voices, student loan expansion continues unchecked, while those harmed by the system are left behind.
How PFR Helps Students Make Smarter Decisions
At PFR, our mission is to empower students with a consistent, repeatable decision process—one that clarifies their priorities, aligns choices with long-term goals, and maximizes college ROI.
We encourage students to ask:
✅ Should I go to college now, or later?
✅ Which college maximizes ROI?
✅ Are there lower-cost alternatives, like trade schools or community college?
Instead of treating college as an automatic next step, we guide students through a decision framework that considers affordability, career prospects, and risk. Our behavioral economics-enabled Definitive Choice technology helps students and families weigh trade-offs systematically, ensuring they make confident, informed choices.
Expanding Beyond College: A Lifetime of Better Financial Decisions
What began as a college decision-making tool has evolved into a broader personal finance mission. PFR teaches a consistent, repeatable decision process that applies to all major financial choices:
🔹 Housing Decisions – Understanding mortgage risk and affordability.
🔹 Consumer Finance – Avoiding debt traps for depreciating assets.
🔹 Retirement Planning – Structuring savings for long-term security.
🔹 Career Moves – Evaluating salary vs. job satisfaction trade-offs.
🔹 Major Purchases – Prioritizing high-value investments.
We believe good financial decisions aren’t about knowing more facts—they’re about applying the right decision process. Just as PFR helps students achieve college ROI, we empower people to achieve wealth and financial confidence across their entire lives.
The Future of Higher Education: A Smarter Model
The student loan system doesn’t need a minor fix—it needs a full transformation. Instead of fueling tuition inflation and debt dependency, we must shift to a model that delivers:
1. De-bundled Education – Separate academics from costly, non-essential amenities.
2. De-leveraged Funding – Reduce reliance on student debt.
3. Delivered Value – High-quality, technology-driven, affordable education.
A better system is possible—but it starts with informed choices.
At PFR, we are leading the charge to put decision-first personal finance at the heart of education, ensuring that students and families invest in their future with clarity, confidence, and financial security.
Resources for the Curious
* Hulett, Jeff. Wealth, Risk, and Time: The Hidden Power of Math in Smart Investing. Personal Finance Reimagined, 2025.
The Wall Street Journal. Belkin, Douglas, and Moriarty, Dylan. Calculating the Risk of College. December 10, 2018. (WSJ.com)
National Center for Education Statistics – Graduation rates, college costs.
The Institute for College Access & Success – Student loan debt levels.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York – Student loan default rates.
Strada Institute for the Future of Work & Burning Glass Technologies – Underemployment rates.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Education Pays analysis. (bls.gov)
Hulett, Jeff. Higher Education Reimagined. The Curiosity Vine, 2020.
Hulett, Jeff. Absurdistan U: How the Student Loan System Holds Higher Ed on a Leash. Personal Finance Reimagined, 2025.
Hulett, Jeff. Maximizing College ROI: Navigating the Risks and Rewards of Higher Education. Personal Finance Reimagined, 2024.
Hulett, Jeff. Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions. The Curiosity Vine, 2023.
Gillen, Andrew. Introducing Bennett: Hypothesis 2.0. Center for College Affordability and Productivity, February 2012.
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